What is a successful season in sports?

If you follow men’s college basketball at all, you’re certainly aware that my alma mater’s team was on the wrong end of an upset last weekend. It’s not hyperbolic to call it the worst upset in NCAA Tournament history. The team won its conference by three games and then went on to win the conference tournament for good measure. It has the National Player of the Year frontrunner. It reached a #1 ranking in the polls for a large portion of the season. But it got embarrassed in the first round by a team that only made the tournament because the rightful participant wasn’t eligible. Was this a successful season?

Purdue’s success (or lack)

Most Purdue fans seem to say “no”. I’m one of them, maybe. Purdue has more Big Ten titles than any other team. It’s nice to get another, but NCAA Tournament success has been more elusive. My parents hadn’t met the last time Purdue was in the men’s Final Four. In 18 seasons as head coach, Matt Painter has reached the Sweet 16 six times (including one Elite Eight appearance). Excluding 2020 which had no tournament (although it’s likely that Purdue might have missed the cut), Purdue is twice as likely to reach the Sweet 16 than to miss the tournament field. That sounds pretty successful.

But in the last three years, Purdue has lost to double-digit seeds — twice in the first round! Even though you have to earn a high seed to have the opportunity to get embarrassed like that, it’s hard to call that a success.

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year. Purdue was picked pre-season to finish in the middle of the conference. Instead, they went 21-1 in November through January. They not only won the conference outright, but by the largest margin in nearly a decade. In that context, it seems like a successful season.

That team down south

Indiana’s men’s basketball fans are asking the same question. The Indianapolis Star ran an article (subscribers only) asking “[w]as IU basketball’s season a success?” Like Purdue, IU had a dominant post player who put up historic numbers. Unlike Purdue, IU was predicted to win the conference (they finished in a tie for second). Unlike Purdue, IU didn’t win a regular season or tournament title. Neither the coach nor the star player received individual awards. Sounds like a disappointing season.

On the other hand, they lost a key player to Injury early in the season and a second one missed several games early in conference play. A team that started January on a three-game skid and 4-6 in the last 10 games pulled together to sweep their rivals (the aforementioned three-game-margin conference champs). That’s something to celebrate. And they made it to the second round of the tournament for the first time since 2016 after missing four in a row (they’d probably have made the 2020 tournament, had it happened). But this is a program that has won the NCAA Tournament five times, so making the second round is not particularly great by historical standards.

Was the 2022–23 season a success? As Tyler Tachman wrote in the Star,

The reality is the intricacies of this season make it difficult to put a singular, binding label on it right now. It is not an undoubted success, nor a clear failure. Perhaps it is somewhere in between.

What is success?

When I was 12, my Little League team went undefeated through the regular season. In the finals, we faced a team that had gone winless in the regular season but got hot at the end. They ended up beating us. Were they better? Probably not. We went on to win the district tournament — clobbering the team that was the consensus favorite — and finished with a 19-1 record. But we lost the league tournament.

Any single-elimination tournament involves a lot of luck. One bad night and you’re done. How often is the tournament champion truly the “best” team? You have to be good to win, but you also have to be very lucky. The former you can control, the latter you can’t.

If pressed, I’d choose having long-term success over a few good days in a row. Of course, I’d rather have both. As Purdue fans “sit in it” (as Matt Painter said) this off season, we have to think about what our expectations are and how we define success.

There’s no right answer here. I doubt we’ll even reach a general consensus. Nobody wants to lose, but maybe we’d all be a lot better off if we (meaning the broader culture) stopped using narrow, short-term definitions of success.

Ed. note: for further thoughts on this, I recommend Doug Masson’s “That Purdue loss” and “Indiana Basketball: 2022–23” posts (plus their comments). I repurposed my comment on the former for parts of this post.

A sign of the times: basketball coaches speak up

I recently read an article in the local newspaper. Purdue men’s basketball coach Matt Painter was talking about the difference in how Black Lives Matter protesters were handled versus the insurrectionists who invaded the Capitol. Specifically, he said:

It’s just the double standard more than anything. America needs to see that—especially white America—and see the double standard that’s been going on for years. For that to happen, just makes you sick to your stomach.

This struck me as a significant statement. Not so much for what he said (which I agree with wholeheartedly), but the fact that he said it. I’ve never met Matt Painter. I know very little about him personally. This is probably by design. I don’t remember Painter offering much of a public opinion on anything that isn’t directly related to his basketball program in the decade and a half he’s been at Purdue.

For him to go on record with a statement like this, particularly in a right-leaning state like Indiana, is a sign of how the conversation has shifted. 2020 brought a lot of “hidden” things to the fore. I’m glad to see that basketball coaches, even generally tight-lipped ones, are comfortable making statements like this.

A few hours to the south, the University of Kentucky defended players kneeling for the national anthem in response to the insurrection. In fact, UK coach John Calipari joined his players in kneeling. A local sheriff burned his UK shirts and called for Calipari to be fired. Officials in another Kentucky county unanimously called for public funding to be pulled from the University.

To be sure, there’s an element of self-serving here. NCAA basketball players are disproportionately black, so Painter and Calipari are appealing to their target audiences. But they both coach in states that are both very into basketball and very conservative. It’s likely that a significant portion of fans (and donors) don’t share their views. They are using their privilege to speak up to an audience that may not want to hear the message.

One could certainly argue that these acts are insufficient on their own. I agree and acknowledge that I don’t know what else they may do more quietly. And this won’t solve the problem, but shows that acknowledging racial disparity in policing is mainstream. This is encouraging. We must first recognize problems before we can fix them. Coaches, who generally try to avoid controversy, using their platform to speak up is a good first step.

Dear P.J. Thompson

Dear P.J. Thompson,

Yesterday, you played your last game in Mackey Arena. You have at least two games remaining in a Purdue uniform, and perhaps as many as nine more, but they will all be happen away from the friendly confines of Keady Court.

The regular season didn’t end quite like we all might have hoped. After a 19-game winning streak, three consecutive losses cost you a chance to repeat as Big Ten Champions. It’s not your fault, but it’s no coincidence that those games were ones where you disappeared from the stat sheets.

P.J., you will not make the NBA. You’re 5’10”. You’re not a flashy scorer. You’re not a steal machine. And yet, you’re perhaps the most important player on the team. And you’re surrounded by some really damn good basketball players.

But nobody in basketball is a more solid, reliable player than you are. Even though your assist rate has gone down significantly this year, you still had twice as many assists as turnovers. We all feel safe when the ball is in your hands. And though you don’t take too many three pointers, you make nearly half of them. And you seem to have a knack for hitting a big three at just the right time.

A deep tournament run is still possible. And it’s possible in part because you are a solid-but-not-great player who works hard, helps his teammates, and works hard some more. You’re exactly what a Purdue basketball player should be.

So enjoy the tournament. You’ve earned it. And thanks for four great years representing Purdue University.

Purdue Boilermakers: Big Ten champions

The men’s basketball season ended for Purdue last night, with a close victory in Evanston against the Northwestern Wildcats. But in a sense, that game did not matter. No matter the outcome, Northwestern is likely to make the NCAA tournament for the first time in school history. More importantly (to me), Purdue had already secured the outright conference title. Purdue now has 23 Big Ten titles to its name, reclaiming sole possession of the lead after Indiana tied it up last year.

Speaking of Indiana, it was against the hated in-state rivals that the Boilermakers clinched a share of the title. To be able to secure a trophy at home, on senior night, against a bitter rival? That was a special treat for team and fans alike. When the final horn sounded, confetti burst from the ceiling and the trophy was presented to the team.

Confetti rains down after Purdue defeats Indiana and claims a share of the Big Ten title. February 28, 2017

The Purdue men’s basketball team celebrates with their trophy.

Earlier in the season, it seemed like Wisconsin had the title all but locked up. A few head-scratching losses by Purdue made the title seem out of reach. But Wisconsin was a paper tiger.

Despite holding the conference title record, it had been 21 years since the last time Purdue won the title outright (and seven years since the last title). Promising seasons in the early part of this decade were cut short by injury, or by underperformance, or by who knows what. A string of consecutive first-round wins in the NCAA tournament came to an end with heartbreaking losses in consecutive years. Purdue fans were hungry, so being able to celebrate a season that seemed destined for failure felt really good.

Up next, we hope, deep runs in the Big Ten tournament and the NCAA tournament.

Coach of the Year?

On Monday night, the Big Ten conference announced the annual postseason honors for men’s basketball. It may come as no surprise that the Coach of the Year winners finished first (Bo Ryan in the coaches’ voting) and second (Mark Turgeon in the media voting) in the conference. Winning basketball games is a good way to get recognized for your coaching prowess. Some Purdue fans were upset that Matt Painter did not get recognized in light of the turnaround that his Boilermakers showed from the end of non-conference play.

After all, this is a team that finished last in the conference last year and was projected to finish toward the bottom again this year. Instead, after a string of embarrassing losses in December made the idea of an NCAA tournament bid nearly a pipe dream, the team got it together and finished in a tie for third place. Surely that is a sign of an excellent coaching job, right?

It is, but there’s a catch. Sure, Painter’s team exceeded expectations, but the expectations became low on his watch. It’s not like Painter inherited a depleted roster this year, as he did when he took over for Gene Keady a decade ago. Since walking into a 9-win season his first year, he had several teams that competed for a regular season title, one Big Ten Tournament winner, and two Sweet 16 appearances. The momentum was there, and for whatever reason (I’m inclined to say recruiting the wrong players for his system, among other reasons), the team slipped. Recruiting is part of the job, so why not reward a coach for having a roster talented enough to win the conference?

I understand that reasoning, but I’m not sure I agree with it. After all, the award is Coach of the Year, not Coach of the Years. The fact that Matt Painter wasn’t doing his job well enough for a few years shouldn’t handicap him now. But they don’t give me a ballot, and I can’t help but think those who reflexively vote for the top-performing teams regardless of expectations make a reasonable argument. After all, there are some coaches who can make a lot of the talent they have (Tim Miles last year), there are some coaches who can bring in talent but underperform (Tom Crean), but the successful coaches in the Big Ten are the ones who can get talented players and make the most of them (Ryan, Tom Izzo, Thad Matta). Matt Painter has shown the ability to do both, but not necessarily at the same time. If he can get both parts of the coaching duties in line, he’ll have plenty of awards to put on his trophy shelf.

Extending rivalries to HPC

In October, Indiana University announced it would purchase a Cray XK7 named “Big Red II”. With a theoretical peak of just over 1 petaFLOPS, it would be the fastest University-owned (not associated with a national center) cluster. Of course, in state rivals would never let that stand. In the latest Top 500 list, unveiled at at the International Supercomputing Conference, Big Red II ranks a very respectable 46th. Unfortunately for them, Purdue University’s new Conte cluster checked in at 28. Oops! Let’s compare:

Cluster Cost Theoretical performance LINPACK performance Cost per benchmarked TFLOPS
Big Red II $7.5 million 1000.6 TFLOPS 597.4 TFLOPS $12.55k / TFLOPS
Conte $4.3 million 1341.1 TFLOPS 943.4 TFLOPS $4.56k / TFLOPS
Comparison 57.33% 134.03% 157.92% 36.33%

It’s clear that Conte is the winner in performance and cost. But what about value? Both of these clusters have accelerators, Big Red II uses Nvidia GPUs and Conte uses Intel’s Phi (which also powers China’s new Tianhe-2, far and away the fastest cluster in the world). Using the GPU requires writing code in the CUDA language, whereas Phi will run native x86 code. This lowers the barrier to entry for users on Phi, but GPUs seem to win in most benchmarks. This would seem to increase the cost of providing user support, but it may be that IU’s users are already prepared to run on the GPU. All of the performance numbers in the world won’t matter if the clusters aren’t used, and only time will tell which cluster provides a better value. What may end up being a more interesting result is the political ramifications. Will the statehouse be okay with the two main state universities both running expensive high performance computing resources? If not, who will get to carry on? Both institutions have a record of success. Indiana ranked as high as #23 on the June 2006 list, but Big Red II is the first Top 500 system there since November 2009. Meanwhile, Purdue has had at least one system (and as many as three) on every list since November 2008. With Conte and the additional clusters in operation, Purdue has much greater capacity, but that doesn’t mean that IU’s system is a waste. I suspect that as long as both universities are bringing in enough grant money to justify the cost of their clusters, nobody in Indianapolis will care to put a stop to this rivalry. In the meantime, it appears that Purdue will remain the dominant HPC power in the state, as on the football field.

Purdue fires Danny Hope

It’s hardly news at this point (it’s been hours since Purdue athletic director Morgan Burke made the official announcement), and I don’t often write about sports here (frankly, I don’t often write here any more), but I wanted to assemble my thoughts about Danny Hope’s new-found unemployment.

I’ve been critical of Hope for a while, and was publicly in favor of firing him last year. My undergrad years mostly lined up with Kyle Orton’s time at quarterback and the last years of Joe Tiller’s successful period, so maybe my expectations were unrealistic. Or maybe not.

Danny Hope had four years as head coach (and a year before that to focus entirely on recruiting as the coach-in-waiting) to build the program. In some ways, he did just that: he improved recruiting from the end of the Tiller era, and player GPAs went up during his time as coach. The statistic that ended up mattering most was the fifth consecutive year of declining attendance.

I’ll readily admit that I’ve skipped purchasing football tickets the past two years for a variety of reasons. Time commitments and personal finances may have been the most compelling, but the on-field product did little to convince me to make the necessary arrangements. It’s not that the players lack talent or effort, although there have been occasions where the players made maddening errors (the 2011 team, in particular, was far more penalized than a veteran team should be). For the most part the blame falls squarely on the shoulders of the coaches. Week after week, the team appeared unprepared. Week after week, halftime seemed to consist of an all-you-can-eat pasta buffet (how else can you explain the struggles that Hope’s teams routinely had in the third quarter? They certainly weren’t using that time to adjust to the way the game was going).

Under Danny Hope, Purdue could take two unbeaten teams down to the wire on the road or lose at home to MAC schools. Purdue could beat an Ohio State University or get embarrassed by Minnesota. Hope’s “best team” — a team with the talent and the schedule to win the B1G Leaders division — opened conference play with five straight losses. If not for the sanctions against aOSU and Penn State this year, Purdue’s 6-6 record would result in yet another Detroit bowl game. While any bowl game is better than no bowl game, it would be nice to see Purdue beat teams with a winning record from time-to-time.

Contrary to what Sally Hope said, I’ve never wished for Danny Hope to lose. I have tremendous respect for him as a person — he’s universally described as being a very friendly man, and the players obviously love him. I’ve always wanted Danny Hope’s time at Purdue to be very successful, but that’s not how it played out. Given the choice between losing cleanly and winning sleazily, I’ll take losing cleanly every time, but I refuse to accept that those are the only two options.

Danny Hope very obviously enjoyed being the head coach of a Big Ten program. His optimism was unflagging, at least until about a month ago. Hope enjoyed his work and he loved being with the players. The problem is that the talented players never seemed to get much better than when they first set foot on campus. In the end, Danny Hope was a great guy who was in way over his head. I wish him the best of luck wherever his next job is.

Purdue’s trimester plan

The following is my opinion only. It does not represent the opinion of Purdue University, nor does it reflect any insider information (because I am the last to find out insider information).

Earlier today, Purdue University officially announced a plan to move to a trimester schedule. The summer session would be optional, but encouraged, with the intent of increasing enrollment from 6,000 to 20,000. Making this change, the administration argues, would save students money (because the summer session is cheaper) and allow them to graduate earlier. It would also benefit the University by allowing facilities to be more utilized.

In preparation for an upcoming column, Journal & Courier opinions editor Dave Bangert asked what the area might be like with so many extra students over the summer. Obviously, the addition of an additional 14,000 students would have an impact. My friend Dave at the Silver Dipper might be the most pleased, as he depends on summer sales to support his business and his family year-round. Other local businesses and outdoor events would probably see additional traffic.

It wouldn’t necessarily be great for everyone, though. I can foresee rental properties having some difficulty. Some student-focused apartments offer 9 month leases. During other three months, they do maintenance tasks that are difficult to do when the unit is occupied. Another group that would be negatively impacted is the IT staff in academic departments on campus. Having been in such a role, I know that summers are a critical time to work on large projects and upgrades that aren’t easy to get done. And families who like to spend time on campus might find a busier campus less inviting.

All of this assumes that the plan works and summer enrollment increases. This is by no means a given. Many obstacles will have to be overcome. According to Purdue’s Data Digest, the average salary for all faculty appointments is $93,200. Many faculty are on 10-month appointments, so asking them to teach summer classes would require a considerable increase in payroll. Some faculty may prefer to participate in summer field work instead of teaching classes, and it’s not clear what the plan is if the demand is higher than the available faculty.

The other financial concern is that students won’t be able to fund the summer session. Most financial aid awards are designed around a two-semester-with-summers-off schedule. Although Purdue has set aside several million dollars in financial aid, other funding sources will need to follow suit. Students who rely on summer jobs to save up money for the rest of the year will have to decide between skipping the summer term or taking on additional loan debt.

I’m not convinced that classes that upperclassmen and graduate students need will be any more available with a summer session. In the upper-division meteorology classes, we generally had about 12 students enrolled. This meant that each course was offered once per year. A summer session wouldn’t help with that. Graduate classes can be even more rare, sometimes offered only once every other year. Presumably, undergraduates can opt for summer sessions their first two years and return to a two-semester calendar when they get into more major-specific coursework.

Another issue left unaddressed, at least publicly, is the summer convention schedule. Purdue regularly hosts the state FFA convention, as well as other conferences and conventions. Hosting these events requires meeting space and space in residence halls. Will the campus still be able to support such events with extra students, and will event organizers continue to find Purdue an attractive option?

In the end, it doesn’t particularly matter what my cynical opinion is. Dr. Cordova has announced that the plan will begin this summer, with the intention of building to the 20,000 student goal over several years. I hope the plan works out for the benefit of the University’s students and budget, but I’m not yet convinced that it will.

Purdue football predictions — 2011 edition

I was much more enthusiastic at this time last year. Many people are quick to explain away Purdue’s lousy 2010 season with the inexplicable rash of injuries, and there’s no doubt that the ever-growing list of disabled players was a significant factor. Unlike some, though, I haven’t absolved Danny Hope of blame. There have been too many questionable decisions and failures of fundamentals to think that this season will be as rosy as Hope seems to think. While there are some very talented players on the roster (Ricardo Allen may be the most exciting member of the Purdue secondary since Stu Schweigert), but there are a lot of questions hanging over this team.

Perhaps the largest is one of offensive identity. Despite the loss of Rob Henry to an ACL injury, Hope insists on running a two-quarterback scheme. I just don’t see that big of a difference between Caleb TerBush and Robert Marve that would justify this. Pick the best one and go with him until someone else is better. We’ll see how it plays out, but I have serious concerns and hope that Hope will settle this sooner rather than later.

In the meantime, let’s look at the schedule and see how badly I do. Admittedly, I’m surprised that I came up with six wins here. I figured 4-5 would be more likely.

Vs Middle Tennessee State: MTSU is 0-2 against the Big Ten, including a loss to a comically bad Minnesota squad last year. Still, they did make a bowl game last year, something that Purdue can’t claim. There’s no reason that Purdue should lose this game, but there is a recent pattern of losing at least home game against a team that should have been an easy victory. Purdue should win this one by double digits, but the game will be closer than the scoreboard indicates.

At Rice: A long road trip to hot conditions have some fans scared. Rice is no Texas juggernaut, and if Purdue shows up to play, this should be a win. The big concern is that the team isn’t well-hydrated and everyone falls over from cramps sometime in the 3rd quarter. The large Purdue contingent in Houston should give the Boilers a boost.

Vs Southeast Missouri State: If Purdue loses this game, I’m calling Morgan Burke.

Vs Notre Dame: It pains me to say this, but the Domers may be pretty good this year. Last year in South Bend, the Boilers looked incredibly lackluster, perhaps due in part to the fact that Robert Marve was still getting used to playing football again. Purdue hasn’t lost the Shillelagh four straight years since the mid-’90s, but I don’t have much hope for this game.

Vs Minnesota: Gopher fans have to be pleased with the fact that Tim Brewster is gone. Jerry Kill has beaten Purdue before (as the head coach of Northern Illinois in 2009), but he doesn’t have much to work with. Purdue’s defense might get tested a bit, but this game should be a win.

At Penn State: The first Leaders division game is a doozy. Penn State looks to be competing for the division title (especially if aOSU ends up with a post-season ban from the NCAA), whereas Purdue isn’t. Last year’s Lion squad was a bit of a disappointment, but I like them to be an 8-9 win team this season. It’s not out of the question, but I can’t see Purdue winning this one.

Vs Illinois: You can never tell what the Illini will do. Ron Zook is eternally on the hot seat, only to have his team do well enough to keep him around one more year. Last year, Purdue absolutely crapped the bed in Chambana, and I’d hope the coaching staff will remind them of that. Even in down years, Purdue tends to do well against the Illini at home and especially on homecoming. This will not be an easy win, but I expect it will be a win.

At Michigan: Brady Hoke was a smart hire for the Wolverines, but he still has to clean up from the RichRod era. If Michigan’s not bowl-eligible by the time this game rolls around, this might seal the deal. No matter what may be happening in Ann Arbor, the fact that Purdue has only won there one time in forty years does not bode well for the Boilers.

At Wisconsin: Wisconsin has outscored Purdue 71-13 in the past two years and Bret Bielma has not developed a reputation for mercy. The Badgers will contend for the Big Ten title and potentially be in the national title picture. Coming away from this game without being embarrassed will be about all Purdue fans can ask for.

Vs Ohio State: Last year’s game in Columbus was an atrocity. It was to be expected after the upset Purdue pulled in 2009. Will this year’s game in Ross-Ade be a repeat of said upset? There’s at least a chance, as it remains to be seen how the Buckeyes respond to their off-season drama. No matter what the rest of the country hopes, this won’t be a terrible team. Although Purdue has a chance to win, they probably won’t.

Vs Iowa: According to Jim Delaney, the Hawkeye’s are Purdue’s Most Hated Rival. Without Ricky Stanzi, Iowa is less of a threat. This team won’t be a failure, but assuming Purdue hasn’t all of the skill players again, the Boilers should win this game.

At Indiana: I hate saying anything good about IU, but the fact is they have the Bucket right now. Hoosier fans have good reasons to feel positive. Although they won’t have a great team this year, they seem to be headed in the right direction. They haven’t won the Bucket in two consecutive years since ’93-’94. Purdue will want this game, but here in September, I’m not convinced that Purdue will have enough at the end of November to win in Bloomington. It will be a close game, and either team can win, but I think IU gets this one. I sure hope I’m wrong.

Overall record: 6-6

Conference record: 3-5

Leaders division record: 1-4

 

Data breaches suck

Despite our best efforts, machines sometimes get compromised. The culprit isn’t always (or even usually) a highly publicized group in it for the laughter. It could be a curious student, or an overzealous admin, or the Russians. Whoever is behind it, when it happens, it sucks. Especially if sensitive data is involved. So I really feel bad for my colleagues in the Math department at Purdue, who had to deal with this recently. According to the University News Service, over 7000 former students have been notified that an attacker potentially accessed their Social Security Number.

I know only as much about this as has been publicized, so I can’t speak to any specifics. What I can say is that stuff like this kept me up at night in my previous job. For years, SSNs were used to “anonymously” distribute grades to students. They’re nice because they’re a unique identifier and nearly everyone has one. Unfortunately, they’re also kind of important elsewhere and protected by state and federal laws. The upshot is that many faculty had files containing SSNs on their desktop or on removable media or on a file server.

In 2006, if memory serves, we were tasked with scanning every machine owned by the department for SSNs. This involved adapting some existing tools (which were basically just really fancy regular expressions to grep for), doing a room-by-room inventory, and then asking users to scan their machines and sift through the output. After the machine owners ran their own scans and cleaned up offending files, we did it again, this time forcing the scans and having the IT staff look for offensive files. It was a many-month project that was not by any means pleasant.

From the article, it sounds like it was similarly awful after this breach. You can’t assume that a SSN will be formatted 000-00-0000, so you have to look for 9-digit strings, which occur with alarming frequency. In this case, it appears that no one’s number was actually divulged, which simultaneously lends relief and futility to the exercise.