T-Mobile, Layer3, and the uncarriering of TV

Last week, T-Mobile announced it will acquire Layer3. In his usual John Legere manner, T-Mobile CEO John Legere promised to end the “complete bullshit” of traditional TV by ushering in the uncarriering of TV. But Layer3 is a cable TV provider, except over the Internet. It’s not entirely clear how T-Mobile plans to improve things.

Unlike services like Sling, which offer smaller packages, Layer3’s offering is sized like traditional cable bundles. Reporting from Ars Technica suggests the pricing is sized like traditional cable bundles, too. Layer3 does not have an app, which means customers have to use individual channels’ apps to watch when on the go.

The Layer3 website is a little short on information, so it’s hard to tell what the value proposition is. It could be that it’s cheaper for large bundles or that it has a broader offering. It seems to be a good fit for T-Mobile in this sense: it’s geographically limited and possibly cheaper. And I say this as a T-Mobile customer (and minor shareholder). What could T-Mobile do to improve it?

My idea for the uncarriering of TV

This is hardly a novel concept, but I’d like to see a true à la carte offering. Let me choose the exact channels I want to subscribe to and pay whatever that amounts to. I have Sling TV now, and it mostly gives me all of the channels I want, but it still includes some I don’t. I would have to get the most expensive option in order to get all the channels. At that point, I’d do just as well getting TV from my fiber provider. I have no problem paying for the content I want, I just want to be able to get it from a single source.

What will probably happen

A more likely outcome is that T-Mobile fixes the price. Instead of the “introductory offer” dance that TV providers often do, they say “this is the price.” It almost certainly would be zero-rated for T-Mobile customers. Watch as much TV as you want on your T-Mobile phone, it won’t count.

I would be surprised to see unbundling of channels into an à la carte offering. With its “ONE” plan, T-Mobile has shown a clear preference for simple billing. Even if customers might prefer more flexibility, a simple plan with few options is easier to manage for both customer and provider. I don’t think John Legere particularly wants to get into the TV business, so there’s little benefit to T-Mobile for going the more complicated route.​

We’ll have to see what happens when the new service rolls out.

Thoughts on Comcast and Time Warner Cable

When I wrote a review of Susan Crawford’s Captive Audience two months ago, I didn’t expect to be revisiting it so quickly. Then came the news that Comcast was planning to buy Time Warner Cable, gaining a few million more customers and several regional sports networks. With the acquisition of NBC, Comcast is clearly making a play to be in the content business. There’s not much growth potential left in being a service provider, so it makes sense that Comcast would want to hedge their bets. That’s why I suspect they’re more interested in acquiring regional sports nets (live sports being one of the main reasons people don’t cut the cord) than the few million subscribers they’d pick up if the deal is approved.

It’s not like Comcast and Time Warner were really competing, despite how “competitive” the FCC and Comcast claimed the industry to be a few years ago. The cable companies largely have agreed not to step on each others’ toes. In most places, customers have exactly one choice for cable TV provider. Individual consumers will see no difference in the competitive landscape, so it’s easy to dismiss this as a non-issue (as I initially did). Where this may get interesting is when it comes time for networks to renegotiate carriage agreements. Comcast would have greater leverage to low-ball content providers, potentially squeezing a few out of business. As long as other modes of TV exist (e.g. satellite, AT&T U-Verse), I expect Comcast will remain somewhat constrained in their ability to harm content providers, but they’ll continue to be able to prevent competition from sprouting up.

Of course, it’s not guaranteed that this buyout will occur. Despite the relative ease with which the FCC and the Department of Justice approved Comcast’s purchase of NBC, the landscape has changed somewhat. Denying AT&T’s purchase of T-Mobile was a surprisingly pro-consumer decision, and it’s possible that this deal is doomed as well. I don’t follow Washington closely enough to say what’s likely. All I know is that I can’t wait for Metronet to extend their fiber offering to my neighborhood. I’ve been told it may happen as early as next month.